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原文：
I suppose that if you subscribe to what used to be Gate Valves called the Whig version of history, where things get better and better all the time, you might believe that everywhere, one day, humankind will reach a blissful state of liberal democracy. But we should not kid ourselves: regimes that are prepared to crack the heads of those who wish them ill — which that in Iran plainly is — are quite capable of stuffing the genie of change into the bottle for decades. Hungarians had to wait 43 years from the uprising of 1956 to see real improvement in their political conditions; it took Czechs and Slovaks 21 years from the Prague spring of 1968. That same year saw the deaths of hundreds of protesters in Mexico City's Tlatelolco Square; it was 32 years before Mexico saw an orderly transfer of power from the old regime to a new democracy. (See pictures from Iran's controversial and violent presidential election.) A more sophisticated version of the idea that autocratic regimes can maintain power for decades would stress not just their willingness to use coercion against opponents, but also their ability to find and use safety valves that neuter forces for political unrest. Arguably, the Iranian regime itself did just that in allowing the election as President of Mohammad Khatami, a reform candidate — albeit one with limited powers — in 1997 and 2001. But the classic case of a safety valve is that of China after the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989. In effect, for 20 years, China has been able to buy off the Safety valves pressure for political reform expressed in 1989 by hugely expanding economic opportunities and enhanced life-chances for its growing middle class. So far, growing prosperity has acted as a dampener, not a multiplier, on aspirations for political liberalization. (Check out a story about how Tehran's streets became a battleground.) An Iran that did not pursue nuclear dreams might be able to maintain both a controlled, nondemocratic internal political system and an economy that was open to the world. China, after all, has managed something rather similar. An Iran that pursues its ambitions to be a nuclear power, however, will in the very best case be Reducing Valves a country where an outward-oriented middle class feels increasingly disenfranchised, and hence likely to challenge the regime. The worst case, of course, is war, if Israel and the U.S. decide that the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is intolerable.
原文来自：http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904594,00.html

Viewpoint: The Ayatullahs Shut Off a Safety Valve Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904594,00.html#ixzz0d1dwNkSd ;是由上海一环流体控制设备有限公司提供的阀门新闻，中文译文仅供参考(上海一环流体控制设备有限公司还生产电动调节阀气动调节阀自力式调节阀 CV3000调节阀执行器与附件及活塞式缓闭止回阀，水封截止阀，铜角式截止阀，橡胶瓣止回阀，静音止回阀，欢迎您的选购。)
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译文：专制政权人员找到并使用安全阀
我想，如果你订阅过去被称为历史上，在情况好转辉格版本，更好地所有的时间，你可能认为，无处不在，有一天，人类将进入一个自由民主的幸福状态。但我们不应该自欺欺人：即准备打击那些谁希望他们生病的负责人制度 - 这是伊朗显然是 - 是有相当的塞进了几十年的变化瓶妖怪的能力。匈牙利不得不等待，从1956年起义43年看到他们的政治条件的真正改善，在从1968年的布拉格之春捷克和斯洛伐克21岁。同年，看到了在墨西哥城的特拉特洛广场数百名示威者死亡，这是32年前，墨西哥看到了旧政权有条不紊地将权力移交给一个新的民主。（见从伊朗有争议的总统选举和暴力的图片。）一个更复杂的想法版本，专制政权能保持几十年的权力，强调不仅是他们的意愿来对付对手的强制，而是他们有能力找到并使用安全阀，为政治动荡中性力量。可以说，伊朗政权本身并不只是在允许哈塔米作为一个改革的候选人总统选举 - 尽管一个权力有限 - 在1997年和2001年。但安全阀的典型例子是中国后，1989年天安门大屠杀。实际上，20年来，中国已经能够收买在1989年表达了巨大的经济机会和扩大提高生命为其不断壮大的中产阶级的机会的政治改革的压力。到目前为止，日益繁荣，充当减震器，而不是一个乘数，对政治自由化的愿望。（签出如何德黑兰的街道变成了战场的故事。）伊朗案件有趣的方面是不只是毛拉已经表明，他们不再允许放在改革选举的任何一家商店的态度总统，以满足人民的不满。正因为如此，中国的选择是不向他们开放。中国的长期繁荣一直依赖不断增长的融入全球经济。但是，只要伊朗坚持其核计划，它将始终受到制裁从最发达经济体，主要是对美国不容易，在与外部世界的市场，为进口和出口，伊朗不能指望发展排序的经济增长可能 - 仅仅可能 - 省却了通过提供经济机会，为那些本来是谁的政治反对派的文化自治的政治变革的需要。一个伊朗没有寻求核武器的梦想也许能够既保持控制，非民主的政治制度和内部经济是一个向世界开放。中国毕竟有一些管理比较接近。一个伊朗奉行的野心是一个核大国在最好的情况来说，将是一个国家，一个外向型中产阶级日益感到被剥夺权利，从而有可能挑战制度。最坏的情况下，当然，就是战争，如果以色列和美国决定，一个拥有核武器的伊朗是不能容忍的前景。

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